Hydrological Impacts of LULC Change in High-Andean Basins: An Integrated SWAT–MOLUSCE Modeling Approach

Rivera-Fernandez A.S.; Zabaleta-Santisteban J.A.; Medina-Medina A.J.; Tuesta-Trauco K.M.; Silva-Melendez T.B.; Grandez-Alberca M.A.; Salas Lopez R.; Oliva-Cruz M.; Portocarrero C.; Rojas-Briceño N.B.; Barboza E.; Silva-López J.O. · Water (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/w18030365

Resumen

Watershed planning in the Andean–Amazonian headwaters requires an understanding of how land use/land cover (LULC) affects hydrological regimes. This study integrates MOLUSCE-based LULC simulations (2020–2050) with the SWAT model to quantify the effects of deforestation, agricultural expansion, and pine forestation in the Leimebamba and Molinopampa basins (northeastern Peru). Model performance was robust despite limited hydro-meteorological data (KGE = 0.74–0.79; PBIAS = 7.2–4.2%). By 2050, projections indicate faster runoff generation, with decreases in percolation (12–13%) and lateral flow (1.8–3.2%), surface runoff increases (≈13%; up to +36% under agricultural expansion), and groundwater contribution declines (up to 28%). These shifts intensify low-flow deficits (−39 to −45%) and slightly increase wet-season peaks (>5%). Pine forestation shows modest and mixed hydrological effects. Identifying sensitive sub-basins provides key information for watershed management. In general, combining LULC scenarios with hydrological modeling allows us to have a technical–scientific tool to plan the territory with an emphasis on water security, prioritizing the conservation of native forests at the headwaters of the basin and ensuring the hydrological resilience of the high Andean regions.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas; Universidad Nacional de Moquegua