Hydrological-Hydraulic Modeling with climate change impact and influence of the Curve Number (CN) in the Ichu river basin, Huancavelica-Peru

Ayala Bizarro I.; Castillo Navarro L.; Zúñiga Mendoza J. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2025) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2025.1.1.1017

Resumen

The intensification of extreme hydrometeorological events driven by climate change poses a significant challenge for water resource management and flood control in vulnerable regions. This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and soil abstraction characteristics on runoff processes in the experimental Ichu River basin, located in the central Andes of Peru, using distributed hydrologic-hydraulic models within the HEC-RAS platform and Curve Number (CN) parameters generated from high-resolution data (Sentinel-2 and SoilGrid). Results show that, under saturated soil conditions (CN III), climate change increases the peak discharge (Qp) by 20.1% and the total runoff volume by 12.9%, whereas under less saturated soils (CN II), the relative increases are 28.7% and 22.6%, respectively, although with lower absolute values. Moreover, the temporal evaluation (2017–2023) revealed hydrological stability when climatic conditions remained consistent, suggesting that climatic factors prevail over land use changes under such scenarios. However, critical areas were identified where soil degradation due to urbanization and deforestation increases runoff risk, as well as regions where improvements linked to reforestation and sustainable management were observed, highlighting the effectiveness of these measures. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating distributed models, high-resolution geospatial data, and tools such as GPCN10 for automated CN calculation, providing a robust foundation for designing adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on watershed hydrology and promote sustainable water resource management.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería; Universidad Nacional de San Cristóbal de Huamanga