Historical Land Cover Dynamics and Projected Changes in the High Andean Zone of the Locumba Basin: A Predictive Approach Using Remote Sensing and Artificial Neural Network—Cellular Automata Model

Huayna G.; Pocco V.; Pino-Vargas E.; Franco-León P.; Espinoza-Molina J.; Cabrera-Olivera F.; Vera-Barrios B.; Acosta-Caipa K.; Ramos-Fernández L.; Ingol-Blanco E. · Land (2025) · DOI: 10.3390/land14071442

Resumen

The conservation and monitoring of land cover represent crucial elements for sustainable regional development, especially in fragile high Andean ecosystems. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Locumba basin over the period of 1984–2023. A hybrid modeling approach combining artificial neural networks (ANN) and cellular automata (CA) was employed to project future changes for 2033, 2043, and 2053. The results reveal a significant reduction in glaciers and lagoons throughout the Locumba basin, with notable declines from 1984 to 2023, while vegetated areas, particularly grasslands and wetlands, experienced substantial expansion. Specifically, grasslands increased by 273.7% relative to their initial coverage, growing from 57.87 km2 in 1984 to over 220.31 km2 in 2023, with projections indicating continued growth to over 331.62 km2 by 2053. This multitemporal analysis provides crucial information for anticipating future land dynamics and underscores the urgent need for strategic conservation planning to mitigate the continued loss of strategic ecosystems in the high Andean region of Tacna.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Nacional de Moquegua; Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann