Gravity model of cocoa bean exports from Peru

Del Pilar M.C.M.; Antonio R.M.L. · Revista Venezolana de Gerencia (2023) · DOI: 10.52080/rvgluz.28.e9.14

Resumen

Gravitational models serve to explain the determinants of trade flows between two or more countries in proportion to the size of their economies. In this order of ideas, the present investigation aims to estimate a gravitational model for exports of cocoa beans from Peru in order to establish the influence of economic and commercial variables, both internal and external, in the commercial flow subject to study for the twenty most important importing countries of the aromatic fruit. The type of research is analytical and projective, using macroeconomic aggregates in nominal terms and variables from the external sector, with secondary information sources. Among the most relevant findings are the nominal GDP of Peru and the international price as determinants for the best adjustment of the gravity model, with an R2 of 0.5793, for which the random effects model was applied. It concludes with the need to implement trade policies aimed at generating competitive advantages and strengthening trade relations with the main importers of Peruvian cocoa, to diversify export destinations, mainly through trade agreements.

Instituciones: Universidad del Pacífico