Generation Gap Analysis in Commercial Wind Projects: Technical-Operational Decomposition Framework

Arellanos-Tafur E. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2026) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2026.1.1.1014

Resumen

This work proposes a technical-operational decomposition framework to evaluate generation gaps in commercial wind energy systems, using the INKA Wind Complex as a case study. The analysis is based on daily generation records spanning May 2024 to April 2025 for two complementary facilities: Talara (30 MW) and Cupisnique (80 MW), which constitute early large-scale wind deployments in Peru. The methodological approach combines capacity factor evaluation, seasonal performance characterization, and operational variability analysis to identify inefficiencies and potential improvements. The results indicate a marked performance asymmetry between both plants. Cupisnique attains an annual capacity factor of 82.8 %, whereas Talara reaches 29.3 %. At the system level, the complex produces 650 089 MW h annually with an overall capacity factor of 65.8 %. Seasonal behavior shows significant variability, with peak combined performance observed in September 2024 and April 2025 (both reaching 83.5 %), and a minimum in June 2024 (41.5 %). The variance decomposition indicates that site-specific wind resource conditions explain 64 % of performance differences, while operational factors account for the remaining 36 %. High-performance regimes, defined as periods exceeding 150 % of the average generation, occur during 13.9 % of the days in Cupisnique and 21.5 % in Talara. These findings demonstrate that a structured decomposition of performance enables the identification of generation gaps and supports informed decision-making for operational optimization and capacity expansion in developing wind energy markets.

Instituciones: Universidad Continental