Generalized Linear Models to Estimate the Probability of Occurrence of Cinchona officinalis L., Cinchona pubescens Vahl, and Cinchona calisaya Wedd in Peru

Tafur E.; Cuchca S.; García L.; Rojas-Briceño N.B.; Veneros J. · Journal of Sustainable Forestry (2025) · DOI: 10.1080/10549811.2025.2513230

Resumen

Cinchona species inhabit disturbed and threatened ecosystems. To address this, Peru’s Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation approved a repopulation plan, focused on conservation and repopulation. However, their spatial distribution patterns remain largely unknown. Thus, Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were developed in this research to estimate the presence of C. officinalis, C. pubescens, and C. calisaya in Peru. For this purpose, the presence-absence of these three species was modeled with 26 environmental predictor variables using forward regression for GLMs. The accuracy of the resulting models was measured by the area under the curve (AUC), the true skill criterion (TSS), and the Kappa index. The results showed that the model selected to estimate the presence-absence of C. pubescens obtained values of AUC, TSS, and kappa index of 0.90, 0.72, and 0.71 respectively. While, for C. officinalis, the selected model got values of 0.93, 0.74, and 0.74 for the AUC, TSS, and Kappa index respectively. For C. calisaya, the selected model obtained values of 0.97, 0.92, and 0.91 for the AUC, TSS, and kappa index respectively. Finally, the San Martin Region showed the highest probability of suitability for these species. Our results detail their distribution in Peru, identifying the most suitable areas for their repopulation or conservation. These findings will allow for more efficient management of economic and natural resources, ensuring the care of the three most important Cinchona species in the country. This research also contributes to the 2030 Agenda in Goal 15, halting the loss of biodiversity within terrestrial ecosystems in the forest area.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas; Universidad Nacional de Moquegua