Export specialization, foreign currency debt, and resilience during crises

Pardo-Figueroa R. · Emerging Markets Review (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2026.101496

Resumen

This paper studies how firms’ pre-crisis export structure and financial exposure shape export resilience during systemic shocks. Using matched data from Peru that combine customs and credit registry records, we examine how export concentration and pre-pandemic financial exposure, especially foreign-currency debt, affected firms’ responses to the Covid–19 crisis. We document two main findings. First, export concentration is associated with greater resilience on average, but this effect is highly heterogeneous by firm size: large firms benefit from specialization, whereas concentration amplifies vulnerability among small exporters. Second, balance-sheet exposure plays a central mediating role. While firms with higher foreign-currency debt shares do not perform worse on average, currency mismatches and working-capital dependence substantially amplify export contractions for small and highly concentrated firms. Our results show that the resilience effects of export specialization are fundamentally conditional on firms’ balance-sheet structure and financial capacity.