Evaluation of Predictive Models in the Justice Sector: A Comparison Between Random Forest and Gradient Boosting

Arias R.; Arias R.; Ochoa K. · Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems (2025) · DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-96775-7_2

Resumen

The use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in the justice sector has been inconsistent globally, influenced by political decisions and the specific characteristics of each legal system. In this context, the implementation of predictive litigation models emerges as one of the most effective applications for improving efficiency in the defense and resolution of judicial cases, regardless of the legal context in which they are applied. Therefore, this study explores the application of machine learning techniques, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB), to predict judicial rulings using data from the Peruvian Constitutional Court, specifically decisions issued between 2021 and 2024. The results indicate that GB slightly outperforms RF in terms of accuracy and F1-Score, positioning it as the preferred technique. However, limitations were observed in predicting minority classes, as revealed by confusion matrices and performance metrics. For future research, it is recommended to explore methods such as SMOTE to enhance accuracy in more complex judicial scenarios. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.

Instituciones: Universidad Tecnológica del Perú; Universidad Autónoma del Perú