Estimation of global solar irradiance and its implications for public health in the Andean region of Puno, Peru – 2030

Hinojosa-Mamani J.; Mamani-Flores A.; Pelayo Calatayud-Mendoza A.; Zegarra-Ugarte S.J.; Yapuchura-Saico C.R.; Belizario-Quispe G.; Apaza-Ticona J.; Tintaya-Choquehuanca O.; Incacutipa-Limachi D.J.; Mamani-Humpire N.M.; Apaza-Chino J. · Multidisciplinary Science Journal (2026) · DOI: 10.31893/multiscience.2026472

Resumen

This study aims to estimate global solar irradiance and project ultraviolet (UV) radiation risk by 2030 in the high Andean region of Puno, Peru, where high altitude and reduced atmospheric density significantly intensify solar exposure. Global solar irradiance was simulated using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model under cloud-free conditions to isolate atmospheric and surface influences. Model inputs included aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and representative atmospheric profiles. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Bias Error (MBE), Mean Absolute Bias Error (MABE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) by comparing simulated outputs with ground-based observations. Future UV index projections were derived from validated model results combined with observed temporal trends. The results reveal an inverse relationship between global solar irradiance and aerosol optical depth, indicating attenuation by atmospheric particles. In contrast, irradiance increased with higher surface albedo, reflecting typical Andean land-cover characteristics. Simulated and observed values exhibited strong agreement, with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 under clear-sky conditions, and all statistical indicators classified model performance as excellent. Projections suggest that the UV index could reach values close to 18 during the austral summer, particularly in late February, corresponding to extreme exposure levels as defined by the World Health Organization. By February 2030, daily maximum UV index levels in Puno are projected to reach extremely high values, posing a significant public health risk. These findings underscore the urgent need for preventive strategies, increased public awareness, and policy measures specifically adapted to high-altitude Andean populations. Copyright (c) 2026 The Authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional del Altiplano