Ensemble modeling of Begonia octopetala in the coastal lomas of Peru under CMIP6 scenarios projected to 2065

Lidia H.; Rashell S.; Samuel A. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2026) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2026.1.1.1475

Resumen

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the endemic species Begonia octopetala in the coastal hills ecosystem of Peru up to the 2065 horizon, using an ensemble modeling approach that integrates machine learning algorithms and statistical methods (MaxEnt, Random Forest, BIOCLIM, and GLM). The models were parameterized with bioclimatic variables derived from CMIP6 to estimate habitat suitability under Shared Socioeconomic Trajectories (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show a critical contraction of suitable habitat under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, a trajectory of high greenhouse gas emissions and high radiative forcing according to the IPCC, projecting its total disappearance by 2065. In contrast, the SSP1-2.6 scenario shows the persistence of suitable, albeit highly fragmented microclimates. These findings quantify the species' high sensitivity to radiative forcing and underline the need to implement adaptive conservation strategies focused on climate refuges.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas