Economic and financial evaluation for the production of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) preserves in Ancash - Peru

Segundo Miñan Olivos G. · Recta (2025) · DOI: 10.24310/recta.26.2.2025.22191

Resumen

This study assesses the economic and financial feasibility of producing canned rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in Ancash, Peru, as a value-added and diversification strategy within aquaculture. To this end, a simulation model was implemented in Python, enabling the integration of operational, economic, and financial dimensions within a stochastic framework. A total of 10,000 iterations were executed using Monte Carlo simulation, generating a full distribution of outcomes from which cash flows, profitability indicators, and associated risk measures were estimated. The results revealed a positive trend in expected returns: the Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) showed a mean exceeding USD 5,800, with a 90% probability of yielding values above zero. In contrast, the Financial Net Present Value (FNPV), which incorporates the effects of debt financing, reduced its mean to approximately USD 2,900, with a 75% probability of achieving a value greater than zero—indicating increased risk exposure due to leverage. Internal rates of return reached medians of 16.04% (economic IRR) and 21.84% (financial IRR). Sensitivity analysis identified the unit selling price and total production volume as the model’s primary drivers, while variable costs and administrative expenses exerted a moderate negative effect on expected profitability. In conclusion, the proposal demonstrates solid financial performance and attractive profitability, reaffirming its potential as a sustainable alternative within the Peruvian aquaculture sector.

Instituciones: Universidad Privada del Norte