Ecological impacts of climate change on Peruvian Andean ecosystems

Zarria Samanamud M.R.; Boone R.B.; Bowser G.; Havrilla C.A.; Klein J.A.; Young K.R. · Environmental Research Communications (2025) · DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ae1937

Resumen

Studies of climate change in the Andes predict an upward trend in temperatures and increased variability in precipitation patterns. Though these changes in environmental conditions will impact plant species, community assembly, and ecosystem processes, the magnitude of these impacts is still not well understood. To examine these concerns, we analyzed the ecological impacts of climate change in a valley in the Andes of Peru. We used L-Range, a spatially explicit ecosystem-process model, to simulate ecosystems’ response to climate change. L-Range simulates monthly primary aboveground production and plant population dynamics. Implementing L-Range required parametrizing 54 climatic, edaphic, and plant variables for cover classes and using landscape and climatic information. We used outputs from three climate models to capture the ecosystems’ potential response to changes in temperature and precipitation. The impacts of climate change will vary across cover classes, scenarios, and location. Woodlands will become more productive under future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Shrublands and grasslands will increase their productivity only under the intermediate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). In contrast, the productivity of wetlands will decline under future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Changes in herbaceous plants (forbs, grasses, and graminoids) and shrub cover will be minimal across the cover classes. Bare cover is projected to increase across all cover classes under future climate conditions. The largest increases are expected in wetlands (ranging from 23% to 44%), compared to grasslands and shrublands (each about 8%) and woodlands (12%). Changes of herbaceous plants, shrubs, bare cover and productivity will be spatially heterogeneous across the watershed. We identified the ecological processes, ecosystem attributes, and cover classes that will be more affected by climate change, along with the areas where these changes are likely to occur. In this way, our study provides information that can be used as a basis to develop conservation and restoration strategies, such as identifying priority areas for revegetation and establishing livestock exclusion zones.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos