Ecohydrological Heterogeneity by Watershed in the Dry Forest of the Coto de Caza El Angolo under ENSO Variability and Climate Change (1984-2025)

Francisco Giraldo Malca U.; Rubi Caldas Zumaran N.; Ávila Apuy A.; Camila Anglas Palomares V.; Lucia Mendoza Manturano B.; Verónica Escate Buitrón K.; Chaves Soto G. · Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (2026) · DOI: 10.18687/laccei2026.1.1.2354

Resumen

Tropical dry forests are highly sensitive to climate variability and regional warming trends, particularly under the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whose intensity and frequency have increased in recent decades, likely due to a link with climate change. In this context, the influence of meteorological variability, climate change, ENSO and forest vigour on the different watersheds of the El Angolo Game Reserve was analysed during the period 1984-2025. Meteorological data, ENSO measurements and climate change data were processed to determine NDVI variation using Landsat imagery. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher NDVI values observed in the eastern watersheds (Tumbes and Chira), contrasting with arid conditions in the Pariñas watershed. Temporally, a sustained increase in NDVI was identified across all basins, exceeding 200% in the western basins (Fernández and Pariñas) due to a higher frequency of wet years and shorter dry periods. Correlations indicate that vegetation responds more closely to minimum and average temperatures than to the Coastal El Niño Index. Intense ENSOs act as hydrological pulses that trigger vegetation regrowth. Overall, the results demonstrate that the ecohydrological response is heterogeneous and structurally differentiated across basins within a non-stationary climate regime. This finding provides empirical evidence of the importance of taking spatial heterogeneity into account when evaluating ecosystems in the context of ENSO variability and regional warming.

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas