Does Innovation Sustain China's Economic Growth? Evidence from Aggregate Patent Activity

Valdiglesias J.; Tejeda T. · China: An International Journal (2026) · DOI: 10.56159/chn.2026.a1000595

Resumen

This article examines the sustainability of China's economic growth by analysing the role of innovation activity, measured through resident patent applications. Drawing on Solow's growth theory, it employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to assess the dynamic relationship between annual resident patent applications and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 2001 to 2021. The results indicate that although the immediate impact of innovation is moderate, its effects accumulate over time, suggesting a meaningful long-term contribution to economic growth. Traditional growth drivers—urbanisation, infrastructure, human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI)-driven technology transfer—remain important in explaining China's growth trajectory, while innovation activity increasingly contributes to productivity dynamics. This article provides a macroeconomic and time-sensitive analysis of the relationship between aggregate innovation and economic performance in China. © China: An International Journal

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos