Divergent responses of endemic and non-endemic plant species to climate change in South American Lomas ecosystems

Flores Vivar S.; Bracke S.; Haesen S.; Van Meerbeek K. · Journal of Plant Ecology (2026) · DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtaf226

Resumen

The Lomas ecosystem, situated along the arid coast of Peru, is a key refuge for biodiversity, characterized by unique vegetation adapted to dry conditions and strongly influenced by seasonal winter fog. However, this ecosystem faces serious threats from climate change, including shifting rainfall patterns, increased aridity and habitat degradation, further compounded by urban expansion. Using pecies distribution models, we projected future habitat suitability of plant species across a broader region encompassing the Lomas ecosystem, under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0). Our results showed significant habitat shifts, with projected habitat loss increasing from ∼31% under SSP1-2.6 to ∼33% under SSP3-7.0. Species responses varied by endemism and elevation. Endemic species distributions tended to shift farther and upslope, while non-endemic species generally shifted downslope, increasing exposure to degraded lowland environments. High-elevation species are predicted to undergo the greatest downslope displacements and habitat reductions, whereas low-elevation species remained more stable or shifted slightly upslope under SSP3-7.0. These patterns highlight the critical role of localized factors—such as fog dynamics, topographic constraints and urban pressures—in shaping future species distributions. Our findings emphasize the urgency of developing spatially explicit conservation strategies and improved modeling frameworks that account for rare species, fine-scale environmental data and species-specific ecological responses to ensure the long-term resilience of the Lomas ecosystem. © The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Institute of the Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Botanical Society of China. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina