Diffusion model for the spread of infectious diseases: SIR model with mobile agents

Centres P.M.; Perez-Morelo D.J.; Guzman R.; Reinaudi L.; Gimenez M.C. · Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2024) · DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.129399

Resumen

Using a model of agent diffusion over a square region and based on the SIR model, we perform a phenomenological study of the spread of an epidemic, considering two possible contagion mechanisms, namely (i) on the one hand, if a susceptible agent is on contact with an infected agent, it would become an infected agent with a given probability p1; (ii) on the other hand, if a group of susceptible agents is located within a cut-off radius Rc around an infected one, each of the susceptible agents would become an infected agent with probability p2. It was observed that the number of secondary infections produced by an individual during its infectious period, R0, has a dependence on p1, p2, Rc, the speed of the agents and the time of infection.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos