DEPENDENCE OF TIME OCURRENCE AND THE INFLUENCE ON SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS IN LIMA CITY

Zavala C.; Diaz M.; Reyna R. · World Conference on Earthquake Engineering proceedings (2021)

Resumen

Lima city is the most populated city in Peru (10.5 million on urban area – National Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Peru, INEI, 2018), however is located in a seismic gap zone (SATREPS Japan-Peru 2015), a city without experience a severe earthquake since 1974 (Lima quake 3/10/1974). We can consider Lima as a city of young people, where around 75% of the population have never experience a strong earthquake, and only 25% experience and have a memory of the damage in Lima areas. Cities in the world have a diversity of cultures, customs and habits that differentiate them from each other. Therefore, the life style of the population, considering the resting time at home, working or study hours, transportation, and others is studied in this paper to find where population is located at an earthquake target time. By the use of the collected seismic data base of CISMID-FIC-UNI (Aguilar et.al. 2017) a function of population rate and location is generated to know the amount of people by time as function of the location. Using SRSND (Zavala et.al.-2007) and DALILA (Zavala, Reyna, Diaz-2015) self-developed software by the authors for compute deterministic and probabilistic risk analysis for Peruvian structures and earthquake scenarios, computing the risk analysis to estimate the casualties, amount of damage dwellings and concentration of the population by time. Analysis of the results show the dependence of time occurrence of earthquake in the estimation of damage and victims due to a severe seismic scenario. The results will help the decision makers to take into consideration for the disaster risk management and consider it for the planning and management prior the occurrence of a big event.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería