Delinquency rate in the Peruvian agro-export sector in the context of the El Niño Phenomenon: Firm-level evidence for the period 2013–2019

Tintinapón P.L.A.; Antón L.A.C.; Inga D.A.C.; Figallo J.L. · Latin American Journal of Central Banking (2026) · DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100176

Resumen

This research evaluates the impact of the “El Niño” Phenomenon (ENP) on the delinquency rate of agro-exporting companies in the period 2013–2019. A measure of firms’ exposure to the ENP is constructed based on geo-referenced data and the E Index is used to classify the periods of occurrence of the phenomenon. Using the difference-in-differences methodology, we find that the ENP produces a rise in the delinquency rate of agro-exporting companies (1,29 p.p), highlighting mainly the effects on delinquency rates in Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE) (1,54 p.p) and medium-sized companies (1,49 p.p). The event study shows that the effects on delinquency are visible from the second month after exposure to the ENP, an effect that persists the following four months for loans to Medium-Sized Companies and five months for MSEs.