Dam vulnerability assessment using 2D dam-break modeling and multi-criteria analysis

Espinoza Vigil A.J.; Gonzales-Espinoza F.R.; Machaca-Parra R.G. · Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research (2026) · DOI: 10.1080/23249676.2026.2690202

Resumen

Dam failures represent critical hydraulic hazards, particularly in mountainous environments. This study proposes an engineering framework for dam vulnerability assessment that integrates two-dimensional dam-break modeling with a quantitative multi-criteria evaluation approach. The methodology was applied to El Frayle Dam (Peru) using HEC-RAS and IBER to simulate Newtonian and non-Newtonian flows under 100- and 1000-year return period scenarios. Simulations produced peak discharges up to 6419.58 m3/s, localized velocities exceeding 80 m/s, and minimum flood arrival times of 10.5 h. Results indicate that non-Newtonian conditions generate higher downstream hydraulic intensity, highlighting the importance of rheological effects in sediment-laden floods. The proposed framework incorporates structural, operational, historical, and downstream exposure indicators, classifying the case study dam as exhibiting very high vulnerability (score = 3.14). The methodology provides a transferable and practical decision-support tool for dam safety assessment and risk-informed management under extreme hydrological conditions.

Instituciones: Universidad Católica de Santa María