Crecimiento Demográfico, Recursos Hídricos, Suelos Agrícolas y Cambio Climático: Una Perspectiva para el Valle del Chumbao, Perú

Correa-Cuba O.; Fuentes-Bernedo F.E.; Rodas-Guizado E.; Rojas-Benites A. · Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia (2026) · DOI: 10.1590/0102-778641250012

Resumen

The Chumbao Valley (Apurímac, Peru) is experiencing increasing socio-environmental pressure driven by population growth, urban expansion, and climate change. This study analyzed demographic dynamics, water availability and management, changes in agricultural land cover, and climate trends in the Chumbao River micro-basin. A mixed-methods approach was applied using data from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), records from the National Water Authority (ANA), Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS satellite imagery (NDVI), and CHELSA v2.1 climate data (1979-2019), validated with SENAMHI records. Between 1940 and 2017, the population of Apurímac grew at an annual rate of 0.56%, reinforcing intense urban expansion in the valley. A total of 23 high-altitude lakes and 52 water-management entities were identified across the valley. In 2021, agricultural land covered only 26% of the valley, whereas urban areas reached 55%. Climate trends indicate increases of +0.7 °C/decade in maximum temperature, +0.4 °C/decade in minimum temperature for June, and +14.4 mm/decade in February precipitation. The interaction between demographic pressure, water stress, loss of agricultural land, and climate variability shapes a highly sensitive scenario that requires integrated adaptation strategies.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional José María Arguedas