COVID-19 pandemic and public health policies in Peru: March-May 2020

Gonzales-Castillo J.R.; Varona-Castillo L.; Domínguez-Morante M.G.; Ocaña-Gutierrez V.R. · Revista de Salud Publica (2020) · DOI: 10.15446/rsap.v22n2.87373

Resumen

Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). Methods The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy; and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected con-tinues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. Conclusion: COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional de Piura