Climate amplification in the peruvian altiplano: CMIP5 multimodel projections of temperature and precipitation towards 2100

Hinojosa-Mamani J.; Mamani-Flores A.; Calatayud-Mendoza A.P.; Zegarra-Ugarte S.J.; Yapuchura-Saico C.R.; Belizario-Quispe G.; Apaza-Ticona J.; Tintaya-Choquehuanca O.; Incacutipa-Limachi D.J.; Mamani-Humpire N.M.; Apaza-Chino J. · Multidisciplinary Science Journal (2026) · DOI: 10.31893/multiscience.2026689

Resumen

This study assesses projected changes in near-surface air temperature and precipitation across the high Ande region of Puno (Peruvian Altiplano) during the twenty-first century, using a multimodel ensemble derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulations were analyzed under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 to capture contrasting emission trajectories. Ten Global Climate Models were regridded to a common 1°×1° spatial resolution and evaluated relative to the 1986-2005 reference period. Temporal trends were estimated through linear regression and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test at the 95% confidence level, wh[sic] spatial differences between baseline and future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were examined using Student's t tests. Projection uncertainty and robustness were quantified through intermodel standard deviation and the signal-to-noise ratio (λ). Results reveal a consistent and statistically significant warming signal across all scenarios and time horizons. 2071-2100, mean temperature increases are projected to reach +1.47°C under RCP2.6, +2.56°C under RCP4.5, and +4.1°C under RCP8.5, indicating pronounced regional amplification relative to global mean warming. Precipitation projections exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity but suggest an overall intensification of the hydrological cycle, with mean increases approximately +5%, +6%, and +11% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Stronger precipitation gains are concentrated in northern and northeastern sectors, whereas southern areas may experience early-century declines under high-emission scenarios. The signal-to-noise ratio exceeds unity in most cases, supporting the robustness of projected temperature changes and indicating moderate confidence in precipitation trends despite higher dispersion. Overall, the findings point to a progressively warmer and more hydroclimatically variable Altiplano, with significant implications for water resource management, rainfed agriculture, pastoral livelihoods, and high-mountain ecosystem resilience. This region is a specific assessment contributes empirical evidence to inform climate adaptation planning and territorial governance and vulnerable Andean environments under escalating greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright (c) 2026 The Authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional del Altiplano