Choice of crops in response to climate change: A study on agricultural farms in Puno, Peru

Tonconi-Quispe J.; Tonconi-Quispe J.M. · Idesia (2025) · DOI: 10.4067/0718-3429-idesia-2025-43-e12

Resumen

This article is based on the analysis of the choice of crops to climate change, applied to the agricultural properties of Puno, using information from the National Agricultural Survey (ENA) 2022 of a sample of 3,359 agricultural units, the farmers’ choice of crops was estimated through the multinomial logit model. The results show that climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation affect the choice of crops, farmers choose permanent crops such as coffee and alfalfa in relation to the choice of the native potato in warm and tropical areas with high temperatures and greater precipitation, and they choose quinoa, potato, oca, broad bean and cañihua with respect to the choice of the native potato in cold and dry places with lower temperature and precipitation; Likewise, the effects of climate change on the value or net income of crops are evident, each additional increase in temperature implies a decrease in the net value of native potato, improved potato, forage oats, quinoa, oca and barley crops, and an increase in alfalfa, broad bean, coffee and cañihua crops. Finally, according to predictions towards 2070, economic losses on the average net value per hectare are reported to be 15.6% for the severe scenario and 8.5% for the moderate scenario compared to the base period, equivalent in economic terms to 260 and 142 US dollars for scenarios A2 and B2 respectively.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional del Altiplano; Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre Grohmann