Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework

Varona Castillo L.; Gonzales Castillo J.R. · Journal of Risk and Financial Management (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/jrfm19070534

Resumen

This study investigates the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influencing the valuation of Bitcoin (BTC) from January 2011 to December 2025 utilizing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The empirical results provide robust evidence supporting a long-term equilibrium relationship (cointegration) among the variables. Furthermore, the findings reveal a procyclical dynamic aligned with the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, alongside significant positive influences from the network’s active address count and computing power hash rate. Conversely, global market volatility exerts a statistically significant negative impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectories.