Assessment of Public Debt Sustainability in Peru through the Fiscal Reaction Function (1999–2030); [Avaliação da Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Peru por Meio da Função de Reação Fiscal (1999–2030)]

Perez Ticse J.C.; Enciso Gutierrez I.T.; Dávila L.C.; Tarazona Tucto J.J. · Revista de Economia Institucional (2025) · DOI: 10.18601/01245996.v27n53.11

Resumen

This study assesses the sustainability of Peru’s public debt using quarterly data from 1999 to 2021 and projections up to 2030. The analysis applies the fiscal reaction function through VAR and SVAR models. It identifies key macroeconomic variables affecting the primary fiscal balance as a share of GDP, with a significant influence from the domestic debt interest rate and the export price index. Simulations show that although some variables have short-term effects, fiscal stability tends to consolidate over the medium and long term. The fiscal reaction function is confirmed as a valuable tool for evaluating public debt sustainability in dynamic contexts.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Hermilio Valdizán; Universidad Nacional del Centro del Perú