Assessing the Impact of Urban Spatial Pattern Changes on Heat Mitigation by Green and Blue-Green Infrastructure Using the InVEST Model

Iruri-Ramos C.; Vilca-Campana K.; Carrasco-Valencia L.; Chanove-Manrique A.; Sardá M.R.C.; Cárdenas-Pillco B. · Earth (Switzerland) (2026) · DOI: 10.3390/earth7030082

Resumen

Green and blue-green infrastructures are key for reducing the effects of urban heat islands driven by rapid city expansion. However, the spatial relationship between land-cover patterns and air-temperature distribution, plus the combined cooling effects of green and blue spaces, remains insufficiently explored. This study applies the InVEST Urban Cooling Model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in land use and their impact on the heat-mitigation service provided by green and blue spaces in the city of Arequipa, Peru, between 2006 and 2024. Furthermore, land-use change is projected for 2030 using the CA-Markov model and the InVEST Scenario Generator tool. These projections enabled the evaluation of two heat-mitigation scenarios by modifying the spatial distribution of green, blue-green, and urbanized areas. The findings indicate that urbanized areas doubled over the measurement period. The greatest loss of agricultural land and tree-covered areas occurred between 2020 and 2024, with a decline of up to 5%. Correspondingly, the percentage of low heat mitigation index areas (0.1–0.2 and ≤0.1) increased by 3.8%, reaching a total increase of up to 6.7%. Scenario simulations showed that reducing both green and blue-green infrastructure had similar impacts on the heat-mitigation index, providing valuable insights for urban planning and environmental management.

Instituciones: Universidad Católica de Santa María