Assessing and predicting land cover dynamics in a vicuña protected area in Peruvian highland arid ecosystems using a CA-Markov model

Pizarro S.; Pricope N.G.; Barboza E.; Ñaupari J. · International Journal of Remote Sensing (2026) · DOI: 10.1080/01431161.2026.2703288

Resumen

High-Andean ecosystems are critical for biodiversity conservation, hydrological regulation, and local livelihoods, yet are increasingly threatened by climate change and human pressures. This study integrates multi-decadal Landsat imagery, spectral and topographic indices, and machine learning algorithms within Google Earth Engine to map and predict land cover dynamics in vicuña conservation areas of the San Cristóbal de Lucanas Peasant Community and Pampa Galeras Bárbara D’Achille National Reserve, Peru. Random Forest classification achieved high accuracy (94%, Kappa = 0.92), enabling reconstruction of land cover trajectories from 1990 to 2020 and projection to 2050 using a CA-Markov framework. Historical analysis reveals significant wetland losses (bofedales, −12.3%) and grassland reductions, with 66% of the territory experiencing at least one change over three decades, driven by a combination of climate variability (particularly precipitation shifts and temperature increases) and human activity (primarily pastoralism and grazing pressure). However, projections indicate a transition towards landscape stabilization, with declining transformation rates (1.91% to 1.65% annually) and increasing spatial stability (41% projected to change by 2050 versus 66% historically). Despite overall stabilization, bofedales and geliturbated areas (periglacial landscapes from glacial retreat with freeze-thaw dynamics) show persistent vulnerability, while woody vegetation expansion suggests potential ecosystem recovery under protection. These divergent trajectories highlight the need for ecosystem-specific adaptive management strategies to conserve vulnerable high-Andean ecosystems, safeguard ecosystem services, and inform Peru’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP), the National Plan for Vicuña Conservation and Management, and commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Paris Agreement on climate adaptation.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas