ANALYSIS DISASTER RISK DUE TO MUDFLOW IN CRITICAL POINTS OF THE CHILCA BASIN, LIMA REGION, PERU

Gabriel-Campos E.N.; Osejo-Maury J.A.; de Delgado M.C.M.-A.; Zuloaga-Obregón J.L. · Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos sobre Reduccion del Riesgo de Desastres (2025) · DOI: 10.55467/reder.v9i1.187

Resumen

In a context of climate change where climatic phenomena increased in intensity, frequency and occurrence, this study proposes to determine the level of danger due to mud flows in the Chilca basin in Lima, Peru, and analyze the level of vulnerability and disaster risk in four critical points within it. To achieve this objective, quantitative methodologies have been applied in information processing, using the Saaty pair ranking matrix to obtain the respective parameters and analyze the level of danger, vulnerability and risk with the help of the ArcMap software. The results show that the basin presents a high and very high level of danger, with the lower basin being the most exposed with a very high level; Within this, four critical points have been identified occupied by 711 people in 167 homes, where more than 90% present a high and very high level of vulnerability and risk. The study concludes that the Chilca basin is exposed to the occurrence of mud and/or debris flows with high and very high-risk levels for the population and infrastructure, and measures must be implemented for the prevention and reduction of risk, especially in the lower basin, the most populated sector of the basin with urban, industrial and commercial occupation.

Instituciones: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú