Actions against the double burden of malnutrition in Peru: a community-informed system dynamics model

Seferidi P.; Guzman-Abello L.; Ballard E.; Creed-Kanashiro H.M.; Huicho L.; Miranda J.J.; Millett C.; Bernabe-Ortiz A. · The Lancet Regional Health - Americas (2025) · DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2025.101102

Resumen

Background: Peru's progress in reducing stunting has stagnated since 2018, while the country is facing increasing levels of overnutrition, leading to a double burden of malnutrition. However, this shift in nutrition burden is not reflected in Peru's nutrition policy agenda. This study aims to identify leverage points for actions against population-level double burden of malnutrition in Peru. Methods: We developed a system dynamics model that simulates changes in overweight and stunting over time in Peru through changes in food system drivers. The model was conceptually informed by policymakers, practitioners and community members in Peru and used quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources and published literature. Findings: The model indicated that several overnutrition policies, including policies targeting food availability and affordability, may decelerate but not halt the increase of overweight in the country, mainly due to industry resistance. However, in the long term, the reallocation of resources towards overnutrition policies may inadvertently hinder progress towards stunting targets. Transforming nutrition policy governance, from siloed overnutrition and undernutrition policies towards a common policy framework against the double burden of malnutrition was the only modelled scenario that halted the rise in overnutrition, while keeping Peru on course to reach its stunting goals. Interpretation: Transition away from policy landscapes that focus on single nutrition outcomes towards synergistic actions that target malnutrition in all forms is a long-term solution towards achieving global nutrition goals. Such policy transitions are especially important in low and middle-income countries like Peru, which are affected by the double burden of malnutrition. Funding: This study was supported by a research grant from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (grant reference: BB/T009004/1).

Instituciones: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia